Market Watch review. 20.11.2020

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Financial and commodity markets analytics

In today's release, we’ll cover the following topics:

  • OPEC+ agreement extension under threat.
  • US unemployment rate.
  • Bitcoin growth by 370%.

Clouds of behind-the-scenes intrigue are beginning to gather over the OPEC+ alliance. The alliance originally intended to increase production by 2 million barrels a day from January 2021, but the second wave of the pandemic interfered with the plans, causing a series of lockdowns in Europe and some US States.

At the beginning of the week OPEC+ ministers discussed the possibility of extending the current quotas until at least the end of the first quarter of 2021, or even cutting production even further. OPEC+ talks ended in nothing: ministers postponed the issue to the December meeting. 

An additional factor affecting the cost of oil is the information that senior officials of the United Arab Emirates consider the agreement disadvantageous. The relative reduction quota of the state is higher than that of others and makes 22%. At the same time, the hopes that the production could be increased soon are fading.

The number of claims for unemployment benefits in the United States began to rise again for the first time since September. The number of those who applied for benefits last week amounted to 742 thousand, which is 31 thousand more than a week earlier. The negative dynamics can be equated with the beginning of the second wave of the epidemic. However, it is hardly correct to draw conclusions on the dynamics of one week. The next two months should show how the deteriorating situation with the pandemic in the United States will begin to have a negative impact on the labor market. 

In general, the situation in America is more positive. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October, 638 thousand jobs were created. Thus, employment in the country continues to grow for the sixth month in a row.

The cryptocurrency market, which took off like a rocket at the end of 2017, and then collapsed and ruined those who believed in the blockchain revolution, is booming again.
On Wednesday, for the first time in almost three years the Bitcoin rate exceeded $18,000. According to Coimarketcap, which calculates the average quote on 20 major exchanges, its value reached $18,323. By the end of this week, Bitcoin has not fallen in value and continues to be quoted at more than 18 thousand dollars.

Bitcoin cost more expensive only three days in history - from 16 to 19 December 2017, when at the peak of cryptomania an absolute record of 19,876 dollars was set.
Since the beginning of November Bitcoin took off by 33%, and compared to the lows of mid-March - by 374% and at the moment exceeds the beginning of the year by 2.5 times.
Central banks helped to awaken the crypto market from a 2-year hibernation, launching printing presses at an unprecedented capacity. Central banks will continue to print money to patch holes in a falling economy, and this could give Bitcoin an additional boost and rise to all-time highs in the near future.

Closely monitor the news background and be prepared for all the surprises of the market.

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