USD ends the week in the red

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Market Watch review. 18.09.2020 

In today's release, we’ll cover the following topics:

  • USD / JPY currency pair continues to decline.
  • Growth of retail sales in Britain.
  • Rising oil prices.
  • Analysis of a EUR/USD buy deal. 

For the fifth trading day in a row, the USD / JPY currency pair continues to lose positions, significantly outstripping the rate of decline in the US dollar. All this indicates an increase in interest in defensive assets. But selling on the market is no longer advisable, because the quotes are very close to the technical support level of 104.40. Nevertheless, I do not exclude the sellers' ability to continue to decline to 104.15.

Now let's move on to Britain, which today reported on changes in retail sales. The growth of this indicator in annual terms was 2.8% - this is the maximum value since November 2019. But given the record decline in retail sales in April and May this year, this growth is very weak. Therefore, demand for GBP remained moderate at the time of the report's release.

Pay attention to the GBP/USD currency pair - quotes are held below a fairly strong technical resistance level of 1.3000. At the same time, only a breakthrough and fixation of the pair quotes above the level of 1.3030 will allow us to speak not only about the weakness of sellers, but also about the willingness of buyers to continue growing. To implement this scenario, not only a weakening of the USD is required, but also a strengthening of the GBP, which may occur when a trade agreement is reached within the Brexit framework.

I would also like to draw your attention to the “black gold” market. The price of oil of the American WTI grade returned to the local resistance level of $ 41.5, which is due to the steady pace of decline in US oil reserves. Let me remind you that the American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease in reserves by more than 9.5 million barrels, after which the US Department of Energy confirmed a decrease in reserves by only 4.4 million barrels. But as we all know, this was enough not only to break the resistance at $40 a barrel, but also to reach the price of $41.5.

Considering that the price of WTI oil failed to overcome the resistance area of ​​$ 41.5- $ 42, buying on the market remains in the risk zone. In addition, it is important to take into account the decrease in buyers' activity in the US stock market - this is another deterrent factor for oil prices.

And I will conclude today's review with an analysis of the EUR/USD buy deal in the volume of 1 lot. The long position was opened at 1.1760, right after the false breakout of the support at 1.1750. Take Profit order was placed at 1.1850 - the closest resistance level. As you can see, the deal has already been closed with a profit of $ 900, while the risk did not exceed $ 300.

Closely monitor the news background and be prepared for all the surprises of the market.


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