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A very important week

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Financial and commodity markets analytics

The key rates are to become higher this week. The Fed would be the first to announce the results of the vote on the key rate. An absolute majority of the market participants expect a 25 bp rise. This may be another slow down, but the comments are way more important, since any hint to the termination of the key rate rising may be a great support for the fund market.

The Bank of England along with the ECB would announce their decisions on the key rates too. But in this particular case it won’t be about the termination of the process, as the inflation in England and Europe is still at a high level. Any way, these events would influence the stock market greatly as well as the national currencies trading dynamics.


Top: Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA St +3.87%, HeidelbergCement AG +2.7%, Continental AG +2.54%

Flop: Sartorius AG Vz -3.48%, Airbus SE -3.36%, RWE AG St -1.67%


Top: KONE Corp. (New) Cl.B +4.88%, LVMH S.A. +2.51%, LVMH S.A. +2.28%

Flop: Airbus SE -2.89%, Pernod-Ricard S.A. -2.82%, EssilorLuxottica -2,1%

Pay your attention to the elevated volatility inside the key European fund indices. Even though there’s no sustainable change in the price of the indices, some of the securities show high nervousness. Most probably it would become even more notable this week.

Bond market:

On the last trading day of the past week, the 10-year yields profitability of Germany and France did not show much change. Lately, after a moderate growth, the investors took a waiting position. But the ECB key rate elevation may boost the profitability supporting the euro and reducing the demand for stocks at the same time. One should also consider the Fed monetary policy changes and the following comments. Any hint to the termination of the by far most rapid key rate elevation may lower the enthusiasm towards the protections assets.


Oil market

The past week has been calm enough, since China was having a so called vacation related with the Lunar New Year celebration. This celebration would go on till the 9th of February. Moreover, the investors are awaiting the Fed decision on the monetary policy. An aggressive position in regards to the prospects of the further key rate elevation may pressure the quotes.

Considering all of the above, there’s a chance the trades be more volatile on Wednesday, when the results are announced. It is also important to pay extra attention to the US oil reserves data. An unexpected change in the figures may influence the market dramatically.

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