We do not observe any considerable changes in the trade dynamics of the key European fund indices. They have been falling throughout the first half of the week but the sellers’ activity was very low. So, their moderate growth on Thursday did not make any changes. In fact, we can notice the consolidation of the DAX and EURO STOXX 50 in the broad side movement for the past couple of weeks. Most likely, the investors are awaiting the Fed decision on the key rate and the following commentaries. The global change in the monetary policy of the American regulator would influence the general market risk tolerance.

Considering the above, the next week is expected to be very active. Initially, an inflation report in Germany and the US is awaited. Then the ECB and the Bank of England would release the key rate vote results. Shall there be a hint to slow it down, the stocks market gains support.

Last week leaders and outsiders

DAX:

Top: Infineon Technologies AG +1.98%, Airbus SE +1.72%, Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA +1.63%

Flop: BMW AG St -1.89%, Symrise AG -0.95%, Deutsche Post AG -0.9%

EURO STOXX 50:

Top: Banco Santander S.A +1.83%, VINCI S.A. +0.83%, Mercedes Benz Group AG +0.83%

Flop: Philips Electronics N.V. -1.57%, Inditex -1.3%, Air Liquide S.A. -0.98%

As you can see, the best and the worst results in the above indices is in the range of -2% to +2%. This points at a considerably low volatility and proves the market’s uncertainty.

Bond market:

The 10-year yields profitability in Germany and France is improving, but at a very slow pace. It is that slow, they did not even influence the key European fund indices. Let’s remember, the DAX and EURO STOXX 50 have finished the previous day in the green zone. But the seller activity remains weak and most probably would remain like that until Tuesday. The inflation report release would influence not only the bond instruments profitability, but also the general risk asset enthusiasm. This in particular defines the stocks demand, which in turn is a risk asset.

The oil market

Brent has renewed its minimum below $76, while its American analog has come close to $71 per barrel. Even though the risks are shifted down, it is extremely hard to exclude the buyers’ return to the market.

The key bear factor is a probability of the global economy crisis, which would lead to a considerable reduction of the real oil demand. Thus, any confirmation that the American regulator is ready to slow the key rate down may support the oil quotes.

It is also important to pay extra attention to the China’s quarantine restrictions. If they are being taken off, this may support the oil market quotes. And, of course, let’s not forget about the OPEC intention to prevent the oil quotes from falling.